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Academic Papers

Nowcasting: The Real Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases

Reichlin, L., Giannone, D., Small, D.
Date Published: 01/05/2008

Abstract:
A formal method is developed for evaluating the marginal impact that intra-monthly data releases have on current-quarter forecasts (nowcasts) of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth. The method can track the real-time flow of the type of information monitored by central banks because it can handle large data sets with staggered data-release dates. Each time new data are released, the nowcasts are updated on the basis of progressively larger data sets that, reflecting the unsynchronized data-release dates, have a "jagged edge" across the most recent months.

Citation:
Reichlin, L., Giannone, D., Small, D., "Nowcasting: The Real Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases,” Journal of Monetary Economics, May 2008

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